Welcome to our first 2019 Tactical Views & Commentary from our October 2018 Investment Strategy Committee meeting.
This quarter’s commentary is longer than usual as there were a number important themes to discuss as a result of the ISC meeting. Indeed, conclusions in terms of our asset allocations were hard to come by as certain scenarios had quite binary outcomes. As a result you will see that our asset allocation changes have moved the benchmarks to a far more neutral position.
The debate was long and complicated as a result of our ISC economist Andrew Hunt’s detailed analysis of the global economy, with particular focus on the global credit environment. This quarter’s quote is appropriate because in the current QE to QT environment much of what we are seeing in investment markets is driven by the ebbs and flows of global liquidity (effectively the amount of money flowing through the global financial system), which we feel is of particular importance to the price movements of government bonds, equities and credit. While there is much talk about policy, often what is below the surface is not what you are led to believe. Sometimes politicians and central bankers tell you one thing and do another………..
We apologise for the quite technical nature of some of the commentary but hope there is something there for everyone. If any of the terms used are unfamiliar, please refer to out Glossary of Common Investment Terms which you can view below.
Please note that the document is a summary of certain views, which have been discussed at our Investment Strategy Committee meeting. We are always happy to discuss further anything touched upon or indeed any other investment or economic themes that may concern you.
Important Information: The views and opinions contained herein are those of the author(s) on this page and may not necessarily represent views expressed or reflected in other FPWM communications or strategies. This material is intended to be for information purposes only and is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any financial instrument. It is not intended to provide and should not be relied on for accounting, legal or tax advice, nor can anything stated be considered a personal recommendation. Reliance should not be placed on the views and information in this document when taking, or refraining from taking, individual investment and/or strategic decisions. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. The value of an investment can go down as well as up and is not guaranteed. All investments involve risks including the risk of possible loss of principal. Information herein is believed to be reliable but FPWM does not warrant its completeness or accuracy. Some information quoted may be obtained from external sources we consider to be reliable. No responsibility can be accepted for errors of fact obtained from third parties, and this data may change with market conditions. These views and opinions may change.